Using Gaussian Processes to Optimise Concession in Complex Negotiations against Unknown Opponents

In multi-issue automated negotiation against unknown opponents, a key part of effective negotiation is the choice of concession strategy. In this paper, we develop a principled concession strategy, based on Gaussian processes predicting the opponent's future behaviour. We then use this to set the agent's concession rate dynamically during a single negotiation session. We analyse the performance of our strategy and show that it outperforms the state-of-the-art negotiating agents from the 2010 Automated Negotiating Agents Competition, in both a tournament setting and in self-play, across a variety of negotiation domains

Negotiating Concurrently with Unknown Opponents in Complex, Real-Time Domains

We propose a novel strategy to enable autonomous agents to negotiate concurrently with multiple, unknown opponents in real-time, over complex multi-issue domains. We formalise our strategy as an optimisation problem, in which decisions are based on probabilistic information about the opponents' strategies acquired during negotiation. In doing so, we develop the first principled approach that enables the coordination of multiple, concurrent negotiation threads for practical negotiation settings. Furthermore, we validate our strategy using the agents and domains developed for the International Automated Negotiating Agents Competition (ANAC), and we benchmark our strategy against the state-of-the-art. We find that our approach significantly outperforms existing approaches, and this difference improves even further as the number of available negotiation opponents and the complexity of the negotiation domain increases

A Population-Based Study Comparing Child (0-4) and Adult (55-74) Mortality, GDP-Expenditure on-Health and Relative Poverty in the UK and Developed Countries 1989-2014. Some Challenging Outcomes

Purpose: To compare the UK Child (0-4) and Adult (55-74) Mortality with twenty developed countries 1989-2014 to explore whether the UK has lower priorities for children? Design: WHO data on Child and Adult mortality examined within context of World Bank %GDPExpenditure-on-Health (%GDPEH) data and Income Inequality i.e Relative poverty. Settings: 21 developed countries. Patients: National populations. Outcome Measures: Child and Adult mortality rates per million (pm) population between 1989-2014. Confi dence Intervals compares UK with other developed countries (ODC); odds ratios of average European to UK mortality calculated. Correlations explore links between mortalities, %GDPEH and Income Inequality. Important Results: Highest average 1980-2014 %GDPEH is USA 12.6%, the lowest UK 7.0%. European average 8.5% a UK to European odds ratio 1:1.21. Widest Income Inequality was USA 15.9 times, UK 13.8 was third, European average 8.5times. Child Mortality fell in every country but eleven signifi cantly better than Britain. Highest was USA 1383pm the UK fourth at 967pm. European average 728pm yielded a European to UK odds ratio of 1:1.33. Income Inequality and CRM signifi cantly correlated (RHO=+0.6188 p<0.001) and lowest Private: Public %GDP ratio and highest CMR (Rho=+0.3805 p<0.05). Adult Mortality fell substantially in every country but UK signifi cantly greater reductions than Seventeen counties. European average 9545pm to UK 10,754pm gave a European to UK odds ratio of 1:1.13. Conclusion: Implications; Britain’s results suggest a higher priority is given to adult health than children. The socio-economic context in which UK Child health operates appears to disadvantage UK children, indicating the need to address income inequalities and at least match European average health funding

Population-Based Study of Child Mortality (0-4) and Income Inequality in Japan and the Developed world 1989-91 v 2012-14: Any Excess Deaths Between the Most Unequal Countries?

Introduction: Parental child `neglect’ is usually linked to parents but can apply to nations using the criteria explicit in UNICEF statement “in the last analysis Child-Mortality-Rates (CMR) indicates how well a nation meets the needs of its children”. Hence under-five (0-4) CMR rates of Japan and twenty Other Developed Countries (ODC) are compared within the context of relative poverty. Method: WHO data yields CMR rates per million (pm), analysed between 1989-91 and 2012-14 to compare Japan against ODC. World Bank Income Inequality data used as a measure of relative poverty. Excess deaths calculated by matching the most unequal Income Inequality country’s CMR with the most equal nation. Results: All countries reduced CMR substantially. The highest CMR was in USA 1383pm, followed by three English-speaking countries. Japan at 597pm was 19th of 21. USA and New Zealand were double Japan’s CMR, whilst twelve ODC had rates 25% higher than Japan. Most unequal Income Inequality USA at 15.9 times, Japan the most equal at 4.5 times. Income Inequality and CMR were strongly correlated (+0.6188 p<0.005). The countries with the lowest Income Inequality, had lowest CMR namely Finland Japan, Norway and Sweden. America not matching Japan’s CMR, meant an average excess of 16,838 US children’s deaths annually. Discussion: The strong statistical association between higher CMR and Income Inequality, suggests that one factor in Japan’s results is the lower social inequality, unlike Canada, New Zealand, the UK and USA. Does Japan’s results indicate cultural factors suggesting Japan is more child orientated than English-speaking countries

A Random Matrix Model of Adiabatic Quantum Computing

We present an analysis of the quantum adiabatic algorithm for solving hard instances of 3-SAT (an NP-complete problem) in terms of Random Matrix Theory (RMT). We determine the global regularity of the spectral fluctuations of the instantaneous Hamiltonians encountered during the interpolation between the starting Hamiltonians and the ones whose ground states encode the solutions to the computational problems of interest. At each interpolation point, we quantify the degree of regularity of the average spectral distribution via its Brody parameter, a measure that distinguishes regular (i.e., Poissonian) from chaotic (i.e., Wigner-type) distributions of normalized nearest-neighbor spacings. We find that for hard problem instances, i.e., those having a critical ratio of clauses to variables, the spectral fluctuations typically become irregular across a contiguous region of the interpolation parameter, while the spectrum is regular for easy instances. Within the hard region, RMT may be applied to obtain a mathematical model of the probability of avoided level crossings and concomitant failure rate of the adiabatic algorithm due to non-adiabatic Landau-Zener type transitions. Our model predicts that if the interpolation is performed at a uniform rate, the average failure rate of the quantum adiabatic algorithm, when averaged over hard problem instances, scales exponentially with increasing problem size.Comment: 9 pages, 7 figure

SIMULTANEOUS OBSERVATIONS OF GIANT PULSES FROM THE CRAB PULSAR, WITH THE MURCHISON WIDEFIELD ARRAY AND PARKES RADIO TELESCOPE: IMPLICATIONS FOR THE GIANT PULSE EMISSION MECHANISM

We report on observations of giant pulses from the Crab pulsar performed simultaneously with the Parkes radio telescope and the incoherent combination of the Murchison Widefield Array (MWA) antenna tiles. The observations were performed over a duration of approximately one hour at a center frequency of 1382 MHz with 340 MHz bandwidth at Parkes, and at a center frequency of 193 MHz with 15 MHz bandwidth at the MWA. Our analysis has led to the detection of 55 giant pulses at the MWA and 2075 at Parkes above a threshold of 3.5σ and 6.5σ, respectively. We detected 51% of the MWA giant pulses at the Parkes radio telescope, with spectral indices in the range of -3.6 > α > -4.9 (S[subscript v] ∝ v[superscript α]). We present a Monte Carlo analysis supporting the conjecture that the giant pulse emission in the Crab is intrinsically broadband, the less than 100% correlation being due to the relative sensitivities of the two instruments and the width of the spectral index distribution. Our observations are consistent with the hypothesis that the spectral index of giant pulses is drawn from normal distribution of standard deviation 0.6, but with a mean that displays an evolution with frequency from −3.00 at 1382 MHz, to −2.85 at 192 MHz

Evidence for a stratigraphic basis for the Anthropocene

The Anthropocene was proposed as a term (Crutzen and Stoermer 2000) before consideration was given to the nature of the key signatures, contrasting with standard procedures for defining such units. The term is being widely used in both popular and scientific publications before a decision is made as to whether it warrants formalisation and definition of a Global Stratigraphic Section and Point (GSSP). The deliberate human modification of the landscape and its subsurface, and the creation of human-generated novel sedimentary deposits, minerals, and landforms, are characteristic features of the development of Earth’s surface and near surface, which has accelerated in the past two centuries. The large-scale intentional excavation, transportation, and deposition of mixtures of rock and soil to form anthropogenic deposits and landforms represent a new geological process that could be used as a diagnostic signature of the Anthropocene

Efferent projections of C3 adrenergic neurons in the rat central nervous system

C3 neurons constitute one of three known adrenergic nuclei in the rat central nervous system (CNS). While the adrenergic C1 cell group has been extensively characterized both physiologically and anatomically, the C3 nucleus has remained relatively obscure. This study employed a lentiviral tracing technique that expresses green fluorescent protein behind a promoter selective to noradrenergic and adrenergic neurons. Microinjection of this virus into the C3 nucleus enabled the selective tracing of C3 efferents throughout the rat CNS, thus revealing the anatomical framework of C3 projections. C3 terminal fields were observed in over 40 different CNS nuclei, spanning all levels of the spinal cord, as well as various medullary, mesencephalic, hypothalamic, thalamic, and telencephalic nuclei. The highest densities of C3 axon varicosities were observed in Lamina X and the intermediolateral cell column of the thoracic spinal cord, as well as the dorsomedial medulla (both commissural and medial nuclei of the solitary tract, area postrema, and the dorsal motor nucleus of the vagus), ventrolateral periaqueductal gray, dorsal parabrachial nucleus, periventricular and rhomboid nuclei of the thalamus, and paraventricular and periventricular nuclei of the hypothalamus. In addition, moderate and sparse projections were observed in many catecholaminergic and serotonergic nuclei, as well as the area anterior and ventral to the third ventricle, Lamina X of the cervical, lumbar, and sacral spinal cord, and various hypothalamic and telencephalic nuclei. The anatomical map of C3 projections detailed in this survey hopes to lay the first steps toward developing a functional framework for this nucleus